Note vindication of extreme uneasiness during the putative breakout of May. (The bull trap.) At the moment it looks like pretty big momentum on the Dow may find some support. That’s the bottom of the trading range. For some reason (who knows) the market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of really daunting economic realities.

There has been a lot of bullishness in informed circles (not including us). Some have predicted 16000 on the Dow. We thought — but what about the mortgage thing? What about the oil thing? We’re still thinking about those things.

As we were saying about OIL. Which is held up we think by fresh headlines from day to day. But it is definitely bubbling away. Investors will want to watch closely. We think that the exit signal in this market will be hair trigger action (reversal day, island reversal, etc.)

IEF is in a solid downtrend. We’ve been talking about higher rates for some time. We think (analyze) that it is happening.

TMW total market just produced another sell signal, as if that were necessary.

We have spoken of every wave having two parts, and up and a down, or vice versa. This little downwave bears close watching to see whether it makes a higher low, or returns to the range.

It is always speculative to opine about the future — and rash — but, being both as well as ruminative we always expect the present trend to continue. The trend being sideways we will have to see solid downside penetration to consider that a real bear market is in progress.