There is certainly gold thar — it’s the finding it that’s the trouble.  As we see it the government should be doing everything in its power to hold down the price of gold.  If it breaks out and runs away (first of all they’ll never catch it) and second it will shake the economic system to its roots because it will be a screaming symbol of loss of confidence and a fear barometer.  So everytime it looks like it might take off they announce that the IMF is going to sell 400 tons.  That’s a lot of gold watches.

The threat is better than the reality.  If they actually sold some and it were absorbed –sponged up — it might feed the frenzy.

Consequently gold has drifted sideways lately.  Here is the interesting technical consideration.  The chart shows a clear triangle.  A decisive penetration of the upper or lower line would warrant some serious betting.

Now all chart patterns are not infallible, and this triangle could easily morph into a drifting sideways mule market, in which case we will be drawing horizontal lines.  Also the farther price drifts into the apex the less powerful the pattern.

But get those covered wagons and gold pans ready.  You never know.