If ever there were a signal this is.  Here is an island reversal in TLT which you can short with TBT. It’s marked with “ir”.

And if ever there were a season of confusion and misleading signals this is it.

Obviously the bonds have got to take it in the shorts.  But when?  The first interest rate rise will precipitate a sell-off epic dimensions.  In the meantime trying to anticipate it will precipitate epic equity declines.

It is obvious that price movements in all instruments are so irrational that the only rational approach is to sit back and watch the snakes bite each other to death and then pick up the pieces to make snakeskin belts with.  So we will publish a major review this weekend — if we survive the week — assuming our bungee cords don’t break.