Today’s action presents some delicious uncertainties.  A 2.38% downday in the SPX, and interestingly the penetration of the 10 day low.  Last week we conjectured that the coiling nature of the market promised some fireworks.  The question is whether this power bar day is the start of the much anticipated downwave.  No one can possibly know, but that is the way to bet.  In view of the uncertainty the bet should be small.  Over the past couple of weeks we have also said that the upward drift of the market was a bull trap.  Today may be the proof of that, but we won’t know till tomorrow (or the day after that –(or the day after that…(or….)  In other words, who knows.  We are inclined to think this upwave has ended.  While the SPX is shown here, the Dow which we usually picture has not reached as high and is a perfect posture to round over into a downwave.