April 26

April 9 2002

Maybe a wedge with an early breakout (bull trap). Dow was turned back more or less where it should have been. Dow appears to be held up by fund managers. Wonder how much money they have. Blue chips last to fall. The S&P probably tells the clearest story--back to the trading range. The NASDAQ is trying to decide whether to test the 1500 support level. Our investment policy remains unchanged. Trade, not aid.

March 12 2002

The minor broadening top continues to form in the Dow. Traders know that losses and profits come with equal (or worse) regularity. So attempts to short the Dow on key reversal days may not be successful on the first attempt. The four year chart shows vividly how the Dow is squarely into major resistance. This combined with low volume and clear reactionary character of the S&P and the NASDAQ incline us to avoid long commitments as investors--and certainly to be hedging here. And to expect that the next important move will be down against the reactionary uptrend began after the terrorist bottom.

5 years of the composite tulipomania