This Last Week-20/20 Hindsight
Summary of the Week posted sometime, Friday night to Sunday night.
The Week that was--May 19-23 2003
We know we're dreaming. We must be dreaming, because as some Senator said, the Congress is sleepwalking through history. So Ronald Reagan's legacy lives on, both in spirit and in action. A Congress asleep at the switch votes a meretricious and deceptive tax package while seemingly unaware of the $20B a year that Iraq is going to cost. Who is going to pay for that? Oregon school kids? Senator Byrd, a latter day Roman orator, a la Cato, said that he had never been so disturbed in his career for the future of his beloved republic. As every one knows only when we put on our economist hat do we haruspicate with the fundamentals. Folks, the fundamental prospects are very pessimistic and match the technical. A long dismal time in store. But don't despair. Get short.
This was the week that was: March 24-28 2003
Week before last the market ate bear meat all week long and in our letter we predicted (we only do that when we are dead certain of coming events. Whenever we predict readers should mortgage their houses and put ALL their money on it.) That in the week that was the bears would get some of it back. Bull trap. And, it was. How important a bear trap remains to be seen, but the Dow took a hit along with the troops in Iraq and the Shiite Conservatives in Washington, who were embarrassed by General Wallace's truthful remark to a reporter that war plans had not foreseen partisan and guerilla forces annoying our supply lines to Baghdad. At the same time the Junta (Bush, Rumsfield, etc.) fell backward over themselves over the anticipated length of the war.
As our readers know we exult at blame, recrimination, guilt and accusation and our favorite song is "I told you so". A few weeks ago we remarked that the Junta was underestimating the Iraqis and that the war would not be a cakewalk.
Now for our next prediction: the Junta has opened a Pandora's Box in the Middle East which will haunt your grandchildren. Have a nice weekend.
See if the market sent you a Valentine this week.
This was the week that was: February 24-28 2003
Color blind citizens were in real trouble as the Department of Homeland Security kept changing the color of the signals and casual cynics were caught in traffic jams by the lemmings rushing to buy Duck Tape and plastic sheeting. We were tempted to email Ridge and tell him it was much more efficient just to tape a plastic bag over your head than trying to tape up all the leaks in your house. Then you could crawl inside your lead body suit and die laughing. The guys in the raccoon masks are not raccoons. They are Turkeys, or highwaymen, and they have bushwhacked George Bush on his way to Iraq. The amount of money Turkey is going to get varies with the time of day and the temperature, and in addition to the $307 B deficit they admitted to last week they quietly sneaked in $96 B for Iraq "operations". Do we add that or subtract it? More extended comments on Subscriber's page.
Next Week in the Markets--Karnak opens his big mouth again
Last week Karnak said it was time for a reaction. A reaction of modest proportions if not a pause did occur.
This Week--(last week) You know, the week that was. End Feb 21 2003
A couple of weeks ago we said, $200 B deficit. Last week they admitted it was $307 B deficit. (With no war costs considered.) What about the $60 B Turkey is trying to extort from George for trespassing rights? Talk about trolls under the bridge. So it was another week of the French poodle with its teeth locked onto our ankle and the sausages waffling and everybody trying to see how they were going to carve up the carcass. We could get the Turks for nothing if George knew anything about history. The Turks would pay us to participate if we just casually said, sorry you can't make it to the party. We'll just have to deal with Kurdistan. Just a second Massa, we'll be right there. Money is not the only thing Turkey wants. They don't want a Kurdish state. They don't want it a lot. Only an Armenian state would bother them more. More extended comments on Subscriber's page.
This week, Valentines, Feb 14, 2003
The market doesn't like the war in Iraq. Like us, it fears unintended consequences. La belle France (a world conscience as well as a world class pain in the ass) tweaked the nose of the Bush Administration and embarrassed Secretary Powell, after being insulted by Rumsfield as being "the old Europe". The Dow managed a minimal advance for the week. Was this based on some good news? Remember, 99% of the time "news" is an excuse for what the market wants to do, not a cause. And anyway, as Magee used to say, looking for the cause is looking for love in all the wrong places. Well, he didn't put it exactly that way, but that is what he meant. The market went up because if you push a spring down long enough it will spring back. As for comments that we might be pacifists or adverse to war on principle, see our editorial, 3rs "Hairy Chest Covered with Medals".